The Growth Hub of Louisiana
Louisiana’s Capital Region has been responsible for a significant percentage of job and population growth in the state, and data says that trend should continue – it’s something to be proud of.
Earlier this year, the Louisiana Workforce Commission (LWC) released its annual Workforce Information Review – an “in-depth analysis of the state’s changing economy.” The purpose of this report is to “aid local and state leaders in planning for Louisiana’s future,” and helping “leaders across the state […] effectively prepare for economic needs.”
One of the interesting data points they looked at was projected employment growth in the short-term, through 2024, broken down by market area within the state. While the LWC projected growth of nearly 59,000 employees (3.0% growth) over a two-year period, they do not project the growth to take place evenly across the state.
Based on the LWC’s modeling, the Capital Region’s1 increase in employment is projected to be more than twice as large as any other metro in the state, and its 3.8% projected growth rate outpaces every place else as well. To put into perspective how outsized the region’s contribution to growth is projected to be, it’s is less than a quarter of the state’s population (23.0%) but projected to account for about one-third of all employment growth (31.3%).
While these are only projections, they are rooted in robust econometric modeling based on a number of data points, including economic development wins. And there’s another reason to believe that the Capital Region will be responsible for such a large share of employment growth within the state: the Baton Rouge and Hammond metro areas, which make up the “Baton Rouge” market area LWC analyzed, have been responsible for just about all the job growth in the state for years. Since January 2016, the state has added 4,400 total jobs – the Baton Rouge metro has added 28,700 jobs in that same timeframe. If not for the Capital Region, the state would’ve had a net loss of nearly 25,000 jobs over the last eight years.
Jobs aren’t the only area in which the Baton Rouge metro – as well as its neighbor, Hammond – has been responsible for just about all growth. The table above also looks at population growth by metro area since 2016, and Baton Rouge and Hammond are the only two regions that have gained residents; since 2016 the state lost nearly 100,000 people, but the two regions gained about 22,000.
While the Capital Region has experienced success in growing its economy and population over the last eight years, these successes haven’t necessarily moved the needle in terms of the self-perception of its residents: based on a 2021 survey, only 39% of residents have a positive perception of the region. And some criticism is certainly merited – crime rates in the urban core are unacceptable; while the region is home to three of the top five school districts in the state, thousands of students are in schools that are underperforming; and a number of parishes are struggling with storm water and other infrastructure issues. At the same time, we are ahead of our in-state peers by leaps and bounds when it comes to the economy and people. And this economic growth isn’t just benefitting owners and managers – a number of parishes in the region saw massive spikes in middle-class income and big drops in poverty over-the-year.
The Capital Region is far from perfect and BRAC will continue to work with regional leaders and stakeholders to improve the metro area in meaningful ways, whether it’s infrastructure, education, or any number of quality-of-life issues. But the region has successfully grown our population and economy in a way the rest of the state has not, and based on LWC projections, it will continue to be the largest contributor to employment growth in the near-term as well. That’s something meaningful, and something in which residents can take pride.
The LWC analysis coverage area for the Baton Rouge metro is called Regional Labor Market Area 2, which consists of BRAC’s nine-parish region as well as Washington and Tangipahoa parishes. Outside of this LWC table, “Capital Region” refers only to BRAC’s nine-parish area.